Late February Weekend Observations
First, here is the full DI Win/Loss Board.
"Upsets" are below the line on the left, above the line on the right.
(If you see anything that looks off, let me know. I've tried tracking down any errors, but it's early season)
Let’s jump into my Top 25
Top 5
#1 Virginia Tech
#2 Georgia Tech
#3 Chapman
#4 Liberty
#5 South Carolina
The game of the weekend was Liberty v South Carolina at Lynchburg. The Flames came away with a 3 goal win. With South Carolina’s hot start, beating FSU, Florida and Georgia, this win looks really good early on for Liberty, especially after the Gamecocks took Virginia Tech to the wire in a 1 goal loss.
Chapman has done what they need to hold serve, but 3 may end up proving too high for them. Tough to know if the 1 goal victories over Cal and UCSB say more about Chapman or UCSB/Cal.
Georgia Tech’s 8 goal win over Colorado looks better after the Buffs solid showing in Arizona this weekend, even with their Clemson and Boston College wins losing a bit of luster, the Jackets stay at 2.
6-10
#6 San Diego State
#7 Northeastern
#8 Utah Valley
#9 BYU
#10 UCSB
This group is tough to sort out, mostly because of sample size. SDSU has the most complete resume so far. Everyone they have beat has been solid, and the UCSB win might turn out to be great. There is a case to be made for SDSU jumping up to #3 or #4 depending on what you value.
Northeastern has the best win of the group with their 1 goal victory over Liberty. Their 10 goal loss to VT was a bit eye-popping on the margin, but ultimately the result you’d expect.
BYU is the only ranked team who hasn't played a game yet, but this weekend they play 2 ranked teams, Northeastern (my #7) and ASU (my #14). It’s tough to know WHERE to put them with 0 games played, but by next week we will have a much better idea of where to slot them. It’s not really worth reading into the ranking yet.
Next week if the Cougars are sitting at 2-0 they are easily top 5 and probably sitting right above Liberty.
Copy and paste the exact same thoughts for BYU with UVU. They also play ASU and Northeastern this weekend and have too small a sample size thus far to really know what to do with them.
Worth noting, Utah Valley gets both teams first this weekend.
UVU plays ASU Friday at 1:00, BYU plays them Saturday at 1:00.
UVU plays Northeastern Saturday at 3:00 and BYU gets them on the third day of a back-to-back-to-back with the Huskies playing Utah on Sunday.
That’s a tough stretch for the Huskies and if THEY come out unscathed I could see them as high as #2?
11-15
#11 Florida State
#12 Cal
#13 Florida
#14 Arizona State
#15 Simon Fraser
Everyone in this group is missing a great win. For a minute it looked like Georgia might be that win for FSU and Florida, but after Georgia dropped 4 February games, they are both still on the hunt for a signature win.
Cal jumps to the top of this group based on their win over Simon Fraser, but for right now their ceiling is UCSB
ASU was one of the harder teams for me to sort out. I think their Auburn win is solid (FSU has the same win). The loss to Colorado feels like it should hold them down a little bit, but we are only a few weeks in the season and have an A beat B beat C beat A situation.
I have Colorado jumping into the top 25 at #19 so the loss “hurts” a little less. I could see ASU bumping a few spots either way, but for now this seems about right.
16-20
#16 Auburn
#17 Colorado
#18 James Madison
#19 Georgia
#20 Oregon
I’m giving Auburn the nod at the top of this group. The win over Arizona this weekend was solid and their win over Colorado looks better after Colorado’s trip to Arizona.
Despite beating ASU, it’s tough to move the Buffs above Auburn at this point, but they looked pretty good on Saturday. For now this feels right.
Flag Oregon as a firm “TBD”, but the margin of their wins over Pac 12 rivals UCLA and Stanford (13 goals both games) should start turning heads.
Oregon’s schedule is missing any top 10 matchups this year, so they probably need to run the table to get a high seed in the tourney. If they did that, wins over SMU, Texas, and SFU might be enough to break into the Top 5ish, but they don’t have much margin for error. A loss or two may put them in the AQ or bust category.
It would have been nice for their sake if Simon Fraser made it to their matchup undefeated, but Cal had other plans.
21-25
#21 Tennessee
#22 Texas
#23 SMU
#24 Arizona
#25 Clemson
Tennessee for sure deserves a nod in the top 25 after taking down Clemson as part of their 5-0 start. FSU next week will be fun to watch to find out how high the Volunteers should climb.
I’m not as high on Texas yet as the rest of the MCLA voters, but I will either be proven wrong or right after the Longhorns head to California to face Georgia Tech, Cal, and Stanford. Before that trip they also get a swing at Clemson, which could also be a helpful gauge.
Clemson is hanging on by a thread, but they have a chance to solidify their status as a Top 25 team if they can return from Texas 2-0. Two ranked games against SMU and Texas will be big for the Tigers.
It’s been a few years since I’ve done one of these, it was fun diving back into the data to try and be as objective as possible.
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